Originally Posted by
Redlands
Early onset pareidolia
not so early
The situation if it was a truck detonation is still problematic for Vlad.
The truck is coming across from the Russian end with a bomb on board, and has been through security according to Russian video. The driver of the truck is Russian, from the Kuban Oblast which is, the east end of the straits. 47% of the locals have Ukrainian as their primary language. Assuming he is completely innocent as a victim, he has to pick up a load and not know what it is, and then take it along a route that can be guessed at but the timing is up to his planning, so detonation has to be by a remote means, and that means either a position transponder, or an observation of the truck for the whole of it's journey, the detonation being triggered by some car behind. If they know what they are working with, then they also know that they are likely to be contained by the damage that the truck does when it goes off. Cell phone cover is good enough to track a truck there? An Uber truck?
The bridge by any means is vulnerable to a group that is intent to remove it's utility to Vlad. Ukraine can find a number of methods to range to the bridge, nothing that they have done so far suggests lack of imagination.
Could this be a false flag? Maybe, the outcome probably surprised everyone involved. Either way, the bridge appears to be a little sensitive to being messed with. The long term problem remains, it is not reliable for supply to Crimea, and that is the main thing. Previously, getting enough range out of a Tosca-U or similar didn't have an expectation of doing much damage on arrival. Right now, there is every indication that there are parts of the bridge that are sensitive to impact. The roadway is one thing; the railway is very exposed to an attack. If the local intel is good enough to track a truck on the bridge, it is going to be tracking trains. Russia still has a supply problem, that is easily fixed by their moving back to Russia.