Originally Posted by
jolihokistix
When Putin says he is not bluffing, then he usually is, except when he isn’t. Thus he can threaten to use X, and make movements to use X, and watch to see how such intel is leaking to the West, but it might also get the West to set off a pre-emotive strike, at which point they will have successfully swapped moral high ground, and Putin can declare with perfectly dry feet that he never truly intended to push said red knob.
Yup. And with that high ground gone, so goes much direct support for Ukraine. Russia will have no problem filling quotas if someone drops a nuke on Russian soil.
A pre-emptive strike is quite a different animal with nukes to a conventional in theatre overwhelming response to evidence that a nuke was in play, shot down or not. Even a dud... At that point, a US and NATO and UN saturation of all Russian assets and teams in the Donbas would hardly be considered an escalation it is a (hopefully certain) response.
I'm getting less concerned with that scenario, there is no win for Putin, there is a certainty of the loss of all.of his military in the field, and that means the galactic Empire of Chim Putin collapses with a high level of certainty. That direction lies assured disaster from Mrs Putin's little son Vlad. All by his own hand..Shakespeare would be impressed. McBeth, Stalin, Attila, Pol Pot and Hitler get replaced at the top.of the naughty list.
After Cambodia's disaster, the handling of the genocidal Pol Pot permitted a semblance of return to normalcy, Putin in Sochi under palace.guard is not the worst outcome.