Originally Posted by
cynicalint
Yes, exactly. If there is a genuinely held belief that an attack is imminent, and the only way to prevent that attack is to strike with the first weapons available, it is permitted under the law of self defence. I had this argument with Army lawyers in Basra, when the mortar teams were assembling and I had a Tornado in the over-head. The Basra-based Army lawyer delayed the attack until the mortars were fired, resulting deaths at Basra, and by the time the Tornado re-positioned, the mortar teams had disappeared.to strike another day. The lawyer had to explain his decision to the AOC in Al Udeid and went away properly educated.
The maths:
warning of response, attempt to intercept, and only conduct a massive retaliation on a release that was confirmed by interception or by detonation.
Ukrainian losses: Best case, 0 worst case, 10,000
Russian losses: All cases: 100,000+
World best case: 0 worst case, 7,000,000,000.
Shoot first: best case: 7,000,000,000.
Not good for property prices for next 10 millenia, but it cures CoViD, Hibbert Curve, Taiwan issue... Trump's legal peril... Etc.
I would think that putting missile defence into theatre is now absolutely necessary, and warning Vlad that a shoot down that clicks a Geiger Counter will end up with a lots of holes in the east of Ukraine with varying amounts of DNA to be collected by the Russian force NOK.
Pre-emptive with local is going to be a serious risk.
It would not seem unreasonable.to remind Putin that a nuclear release on Ukraine will be considered by the world to be an act of genocide by Russia, and that the annexation is not recognised as Russia, only the December 8, 1991 Russian borders are considered to be Russian sovereign territory, IAW with the agreement they were party to. Any Russian soldiers, equipment or materiel within Ukraine is free fire for everyone else in the world.
That is a reasonable non escalatory status.
In the meantime, Putin is coming close to a catastrophe in Russia itself that is going to need his troops to be returned to do guard duty, otherwise Russia will be that territory near Moscow and St Petersburg, except, much of St Petersburg would prefer to be Finnish. (better vodka?)