Originally Posted by
Ninthace
They could declare an exclusion in the Black Sea and do an air burst as a demonstration of capability and intent, unless there is some other empty space available.
Turkey has been close to neutral to Russia throughout the master strategists land grab. Turkey has maintained a dialogue and continues to have cross border activity, while still providing arms to UKraine, which has been a delicate balancing act, but could become a central factor now; Putin following "hardline" (Putin isn't hardline already??? ) calls to turn Russia into a rogue state by using TNW's (to be clear, these include yields between 2 to 3 times Hiroshima & Nagasaki... they are not trivial/semantics, they will have serious consequences.
A TNW in the Black Sea will be the last time a Russian ship passes the Bosporus I wager.
It would place China in an untenable position and result in an opportunity to reinforce the alignment of China towards it's main trading partners.
India would be in an untenable position, they cannot condone the use of a nuclear weapon to blackmail the World, not when their neighbors on 2 sides hold stockpiles.
As far as trying to target Ukrainian forces in the front line, Russia has not been effective at doing that with any PGM in the past, and the kinetic front now mixes Russian and Ukrainian troops; he would be taking out his own troops, and certainly killing thousands of the very same "Russian loving" people of the areas that they are purporting to be saving from Ukraine (by raping, murdering, pillaging... the usual Russian "help" over the last 1,000 years + of "Russ").
US and NATO in-theatre Tacair would be able to mount a credible conventional response, but they would be wanting a surge of additional assets out of the US and other out of region supporting countries. Strategic air would gave a lot of mass, but the refuelling assets will get a workout even in a short sharp removal of everything that has a Z, X, or V, or white/blue/red flag nearby.
The USAF has discussed single pilot ops for tankers, they have an alternative available of using the tens of thousands of aircrew that are former military and are competent on the same types to assist a max effort to remove the criminals from Ukraine. I for one am available free of charge, for either MRTT/KC-30 or K-46 crewing. Tanking will be a limiting factor to a sharp response not involving a counter demo of a nuke in international water in the middle of the Sea of Azov by NATO. Prefer that Putin retire to Sochi to clean upper floor windows in his retirement.
Popping off a TNW in an urban population of Ukraine will mark the end of Russia as an international country, and would result in more neighbors calling for collective security from NATO or similar defensive alliances. It would result in the end of the UN 1.0 almost certainly, which is overdue anyway, but Russian troops in the Ukraine would still be removed by immediate responses from NATO.
It is not acceptable to merely sit back and reward a rogue nation for the use of WMD to achieve their criminal aims.
Overdue for rational thinking in Russia to play this out and see what the paranoia and institutionalized, systemic kleptocratic dysfunction will result in. Nationalistic jingoism doesn't act in the national best interest often if ever.
