I feel sure that in both diplomatic and also back channels to the Belarus government, ORAC's point will have been made in spades.
How the armed forces of Belarus will respond to an order to invade Ukraine, from the military generals down to the enlisted men is another unknown, both to us and probably to president Lukashenko.
And I wonder if the three Su30SM aircraft which arrived in Belarus were part of an attack force or a desertion. In this war you can never be sure...