Originally Posted by
MJ89
the use at all, (europe) as we have all said is just mad.
And the island few miles of Nato's coast, Romania, i wouldn't want to find out
- the dreaded 7 Engine approach...
The shock of a flash-bang going off in Eastern Europe would be something to avoid. There are program responses, but there is a fair expectation that the lunacy that is involved in such an action would add some ad-hoc steps from many responders. That's not a bad thing, it has kept civilisation going at least until Putin came on the scene. In the absence of command and control, then it is pretty much set piece responses, and that would need a lot of marshmellows for the show that puts on.
Smokin' Snake Island may be considered an attack on NATO, I would think that would be reasonable. Taking out anything within Ukraine would be reasonably considered as an radiological attack on NATO including deliberately toasting a NPP within the Ukraine (Russian NPP's safety is, well, it's Russia, seems OH&S needs a bit of work), and would probably end up with more than really stern letters. Immediate retaliation against all known Russian targets within Ukraine would be high on that list, and that would mean using all available assets, including TLAM from surface ships, planes and SSN/SSKs. etc. That any nuclear weapon will result in the removal of everything of Russian make from the Donbas, within Ukraine territory is about the only intermediate step that is available, other than asking for another jar of K.Y. jelly. A nuclear response is not going to be considered to be anything other than escalation from the House of Puke. I do think that ramping up a Reforger exercise is warranted to get some clarity into Vlad's vodka infused synapses, that making threats on nukular items comes with consequences.
Here's the thing, sitting back and not standing up on posture after a thinly veiled threat invites the dear leader of the hermit kingdom to follow suit in due course.
Vlad's house of Horrors The Kremlin needs reasons to stand up to Vlad, the Dumber is not going to drag Vlad off the perch until the streets are awash with the great unwashed proletariat, which may happen but might not be soon enough.
In '62, Nikita had some courage, enough to sort out a problem that had arisen from the activity of all sides, but the solution was to quietly back down. (it also got perilously close to going bad, just because a D-E sub got held down until it depleted it's batteries....) Today, Vlad doesn't indicate any such level of personal courage, he is afraid to be in the same room as other things, (like, ...people ), and is caught in his own rhetoric. Backing down doesn't end well unless he has a good story to tell, being Russia, stories are everything. Since Vlad and Co have come to power, they have managed to cause wars with a tad over 50% of their former friends, the ones that they have maintained in spite of that now are asking why they are involved in anything Russian any more, and they have taken the resources of the country and deposited much of that in the names of around 200 Russians that are holding the loot for.... count Vlad. As far as systems whose time has come and gone, Russia needs to open up under new management.
Funny, this is reminiscent of the saying in a B grade film, "I'm not worried about the men with thousands of nukes, I'm terrified over the person who has just one..." and that is the thing, a demo bang on a target in Ukraine will certainly result in response and that may get, how you say.... "Sporty", Da?".
