Originally Posted by
Big Pistons Forever
If Russia uses a nuke of any size anywhere and there is not an overwhelming kinetic response from NATO then the nuclear taboo has been broken and you have enabled all the despots who have or are working towards nuclear weapons to use them. This would be an existential moment for the West.
If there is no action why would China not use tactical nukes on China or Pakistan on India?. It is the ultimate terror weapon
Well that would depend on how miserable the international community could immediately make life for Russia.
It's the intermediate scenarios that are difficult.
Let's say Russia drops a small weapon on Snake Island.
To signal how seriously we view the breaking of said taboo, are we (i.e. the US and UK) then going to TLAM most or all of known Russian military sites in Ukraine in response? (those two nations being the only ones who have them in the arsenal).
Realistically - that weapon is probably the only PGM that can be used at short notice given the lack of a no-fly zone.
It's immediately obvious then who has attacked Russia, and a further escalatory response is invited.
I would have thought there are a few intermediate options i.e. turning off the lights and infrastructure inside Russia, announcing an immediate physical and virtual blockade to the extent it is possible - in essence immediately crippling and isolating Russia as a nation.
Immediate full travel and flight ban, revocation of every and all visas, expropriation of all Russian assets and funds internationally.
You would also highly visibly put your SSBNs to sea, and move to DEFCON 2.
Now, if they dropped a nuclear weapon on a major population centre - that's an entirely different step or two up the response sequence...