Originally Posted by
SASless
Can we look to the Ukraine-Russia War for some enlightenment re tactics, strategy, and technology pertinent to this discussion?
I started doing that in post #2 and others have since joined on the HIMARS theme.
There are big questions for air forces arising out of all this. My take is that modern GBAD has made 4th gen aircraft an irrelevance at and beyond the front lines of a major conflict. By the traditional definitions, both Russia and Ukraine seem to be enjoying air superiority, as neither side seems capable of using air power to any great effect.
Even were NATO to become directly involved, the tactics and true capability of 5th gen aircraft would remain a closely guarded secret because of the need to maintain deterrence on a grand scale (e.g. to China over Taiwan, or to Russia over the Baltics), so I see it as unlikely that the likes of F-35 would ever be used to their full potential in lesser scenarios in case any weaknesses or limitations were exposed. The strategic and operational implications of the vulnerability of the 5th gen technological ‘edge’ to being undermined by intelligence gathering has never been given adequate thought, in my view. It seems the undoubted short-term tactical benefits of the 5th gen approach are as far as any analysis has ever gone.
That means ground forces will become increasingly reliant on organic fires, and with the
relatively low cost of systems like HIMARS and ATACMS (compared to the enormous through-life costs of combat aircraft) you’d have to ask yourself: why the hell not?
It has been axiomatic since WW2 that air superiority is a prerequisite for successful land operations, and that axiom has been deployed by air forces to justify a greater share of funds that otherwise would have been spent on armies. If the Ukrainian army succeeds with air superiority provided organically by GBAD, and moreover is able to exploit air superiority through unfettered use of guided artillery (which would otherwise be a prime target for Russian CAS and BAI), then an enormous pillar of the justification for funding combat aircraft fleets is at risk of disappearing.