Originally Posted by
missingblade
Average 777 pilot isn't flying at all.
Average Airbus pilot is doing 45 hours.
Only the 747 guys are flying reasonable hours.
No 747's parked.
Hkg isn't really opening any time soo. Thus cx is a cargo airline for the foreseeable future.
So - There's no shortage of pilots.
There's 2500 guys on the seniority list.
Costs to hire and train new pilots as we slowly open up over the next two or more years will be a billion dollars plus - however they've saved double that on cos18 and everyone that quit over the past two years...
I fail to see the problem...
777 pilot is not flying, but you also need to consider the fact that not many 777 pilots left. Most have been transfer to 747 or have quit.
Average Airbus doing 45 hours, that's a bit misleading.
Closed loop Airbus are average 85+ hours (mostly long haul with some regional pax flight)
Non-Closed loop Airbus are below the fleet threshold, so yes they are indeed averaging around 45+ hours. However all of these guys are operating COP or China Flight or regional sector or mini loop (ie: pax flight + Q3). Flying 45 to 50 hours, most guys are already on a very busy roster with not much ability to roster more flight unless the government remove some restrictions on test and hold or mini loop quarantine restrictions. And yes, more then 90% of the whole Airbus (330/350) fleet are already back on the line. So unless they get more crew, they won't be about to mount more sectors. So definitely a shortage if they want to ramp up even more.
747 guys, yes they are working very hard and we all know that. They are also making a lot of money, more then their old contract, with some guys flying up to 100+ hours a month.
So is there a shortage? Yes and No.
Flying the current level of flight, there are NO shortage.
If we ever want to ramp up, then yes there will be a shortage, but not a significant one. Because it depends on how big of an airline, CX will be post COVID? Currently, CX has about 2450 pilots. This is similar to the number of pilots back in 2007/8, at that time, CX has around 120 aircraft. In the last annual report, CX (not including HK express or HK Airline) has 188 aircraft (this is down form 245 from before COVID). Assuming they will shink the airline and get rid of all the 777-300ER on lease, as well as any A330 and A321 on lease, that will bring the fleet size down to 160 aircraft. To man 160 aircraft, they will around 3300 pilots. So essentially, they are around 900 pilot short.
And since the airline are not going to instantly return to full flying. We can expect that their plan will be to ramp up back to around 3300 pilots with 160 aircraft. The management thinks they can hire 500 cadets within 2 to 3 years. So they need to hire another 400 direct entry pilots. Will they be able to do it? Who knows?
So yes they are short of pilots for 160 aircraft.
Now of course if the business case changes and they want to be a bigger airline (maybe back to 245 aircraft, pre-COVID level)? Then all I can say is, Good Luck to the management team.