Originally Posted by
etudiant
No argument, the law is silent in wartime.
Putin 24 FEB 22: SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION.:
Not a "war", a criminal home invasion, with special circumstances; pre-meditation, conspiracy, racial profiling, genocide, rape, murder, wilful property damage.
Originally Posted by
etudiant
That imho is exactly what Mearsheimer and others have been harping on, when nations feel their vital interests are threatened, they will respond, irrespective of prior treaty obligations.
You justify the wholesale breach of international obligations based not on law, but a talking head who benefits from book sales. The poster child that you have for your premise is..... Russia. It is Russia that attacked Chechnya 2 times and then ran follow-up subversion, it is Russia that attacked Moldova, Georgia, and the other signatory states to the agreements that Russia had obligations to expressly not interfere, attack, or otherwise annoy... Russia feels no need to keep their word, yet you get upset with the rest of the world supporting it's victims. You confirm Russia is criminal in intent. If they don't intend to honor their obligations, then don't sign treaties stating that you will. The civilized world wishes to get on with life; Russia intends to get ion with genocide, murder, and rape of its neighbors, all under the auspices of defending Russia... Russia can stay as a hermit kingdom of murderers, or it can join civilization, it doesn't get to bitch about the unfairness of the civilized world's response to their depraved actions. Russia is, how you say... the word... Nekulturny, is so? Da!.
Originally Posted by
etudiant
Given the results to date, it seems obvious that the Russian response was wrong. In context of Putin's oft quoted view that the collapse of the USSR was the seminal catastrophe of our era, the effort to decapitate the Ukraine simply provoked a concerted US/European effort to prevent Russia from turning back the clock.
You presume that Russia has the fortitude that the French, British and Germans had on the front. My grandfather arrived in France in August 1914, and survived at the front for all of the madness of the Somme offenses, and left the field after the armistice.
Now, Russia fell apart in 1917, and walked off the battlefield, due to the revolt. That is where Russia is heading again at this time, due to the cynical action of the new emperor V Putin. Putin has done more damage to the Russian military than WW-1 did. To be clear, Putin did that by being an agent for the corruption that was endemic within the USSR to flourish under his rapacious kleptocratic governance. Your military is slightly more effective than Eritrea's.... own goal! Putin then set up the conditions precedent to not have a valid mental model of the world, through his despotic and poisonous, lethal, fall out of the window, drown in bathtub methods of managing dissent. Hardly a surprise that he was isolated... He expected Ukraine to fold like a soufflé.... he was wrong.
Originally Posted by
etudiant
So now both sides are stuck, while Europe hopes that sanctions will cause Russia to withdraw and Russia hopes that economic pressures will force Europe to remove the sanctions, .people are dying in Ukraine.
Russia is stuck, Ukraine is gaining strength, and can work tirelessly to defeat the logistics of Russia. Russia can bleed out in the field, have an internal rebellion as they have lost credibility to maintain a union under an iron rule that was found to be rusted out, or they can do themselves a favor, and ask for a cease-fire and remove themselves from all Ukrainian sovereign land. There are other options, door #5 etc, which result in the defeat of Russia's own population by the hand of Putin.
Originally Posted by
etudiant
It is stupid beyond belief, even worse is that such stalemates make escalation almost inevitable, as Verdun and the Somme examples from WW1 underscore.
This isn't Verdun or the Somme, Russia is going to bleed out in the field, and yet Putin can't bring himself to tell the truth to the Russian population, Wars historically were dependent on the economic strength of the combatants, today, that is only partially true, what determines the outcome is the moral element; Ukraine is fighting a criminal invader on its soil. Russia didn't even bother to tell it's troops that they were going to invade a friendly neighboring country that has never attacked Russia.
Originally Posted by
etudiant
Mearsheimer points out that there is no visible diplomatic path forward to settle this conflict, so escalation is the most likely outcome.
I disagree; the collapse of Russia is far closer and more likely. Russia is on a trajectory down the toilet plug, and that is a non-linear process, snowball is a good metaphor. Look at your armed forces capability now, compared to 23 FEB 22, look at who your friends are.. Eritrea can come and help... What do you escalate a Special Military Operation into? A really Special one?
Russia is on the precipice of losing the federation, It will start quietly and accelerate as the states that have been under Moscow's control determine that Moscow lost the plot, corrupted itself into ignominy and that there is no material gain to remaining a pet of Putin. the good ol' days of corruption will be coming home to roost soon enough.
Originally Posted by
etudiant
Of course, imho this is just the latest in the west's fratricidal wars which have opened the door to Asian dominance in world affairs. .
What "fratricide" are you referring to? You could use other adjectives but... fratricide? Huh? crazy person says what?
https://www.google.com/search?q=frat...hrome&ie=UTF-8
Originally Posted by
etudiant
I don't think that these wars are desirable.
This isn't a "war" according to your death star commander, is
Social Military Operation... oops Special Military Operation....
Otherwise, glad to actually agree if you mean naked criminal aggression against a neighboring country in violation of the UN Charter.
P.S.: you do know that Russia as a belligerent party has no vote in the UNSC on any matter pertaining to a conflict they are a party to? Time for reinforcement of global condemnation of Russia's habitual aggression against its neighbor states.
I speak a little Russian, perhaps Russia will invade whatever country I am in to "protect" me? You make comments previously about protecting "Russian speaking" people, yet English is spoken by over half the world's population, yet, England doesn't feel a need to invade France anymore... because some countries have evolved, others are stuck in their glorious memories of bygone greatness. In the meantime, your national resource in energy has been mainly siphoned off to the oligarchs rather than giving benefit to the nation. The time of oil revenue dependency is coming to a close for Russia, and then what grift are they going to use to keep occupied?
A protracted war was a possibility until Russia's performance amazed all with being so incompetent and so dependent on materiel and supply staggeringly compromised by endemic corruption.
On military aviation matters, I have more confidence in the survivability fo the A-10 in the field; the predicate that air superiority needed to be in hand has been made moot by the performance of the Russian air assets, which have very little interest in actually coming into contact with the air defenses of Ukraine. Conversely, MANPADS and AAA from the Russian side of the lines will be a threat, but was ever thus. The A-10 is a veritable point source of "shock 'n awwwww"; given the chance to demonstrate, I doubt that many Ukrainian pilots will not jump at the opportunity to invite the guests to leave the country in style. One thing that has come out of the Russian tactics is the lob toss of rockets; would think that the A-10 would be a solid platform to get some 2.75"s into the area with a modicum of discomfort to the recipients. The GAU-8 is memorable, acts as a disincentive to troops mulling over the merits of assisting the criminal actions of Putin or not. Just a couple of squadrons would be a good start. Yes, don't expect them to returned serviceable, but many of the drivers will get back.
The A-10 has high operational costs, certainly. But it has a level of survivability that is nearly unparalleled, and is available from an operator that has tried for years to kill it as a program. If someone has a few squadrons of Su-25's laying around with good munitions then that's a very good option, Ukraine has trained and competent Su-25 drivers already, the A-10 would not be an arduous transition should the Su-25 availability be constrained. Pretty sure Russia is unlikely to offer many to Ukraine....