Originally Posted by
Winemaker
This is starting to remind me of Vietnam. When the Russian draft happens we will see real resistance, but there is a large percentage who will support military activity regardless. It took an American TV news reporter, Walter Cronkite, saying on national news that it was over to really tip the scales with the Viet Nam war. This needs to happen with the Russians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCdXVWsTpSM
There is a dissonance in the propaganda by the Russian media that followed the demise of the young lady driving the foreign import in Moscow. The immediate clamor is to destroy Ukraine for their actions as they are responsible for the death of the charming young lady who espoused the same line as her still alive father (the day is young)... So.... expanding on that linkage, Russian media wants to kill the things responsible for the heinous act of dispatching the occupant of the vehicle, they are an enemy of the Rodina etc... Indeed they are. Turns out that they are Russian citizens, that have been driven to this point of response by.... V Putin. So, continuing on that theme, can the Russian media please vent their ire at the correct source, which is, V. Putin,
ul. Vosdvizhenka d.1; Moscow 1.
It's not often that I concur with the media, but in this instance, I do, that indeed, M V Putin, esq is the enemy of the State of Russia, and all efforts to provide a dispatch service for him by Russian's, to protect Russians from his attacks on Russian's, should be conduct, W.I.E., if not sooner.
It's impolite to hate Ukrainians for something that was in fact done by your own team, and which arises as a foreseeable consequence of the actions of the crime f
amily syndicate I/C.
Does the NRA change the situation like Walter K did for the US in Viet Nam? I would think that they do, as there is now a direct threat from Russians to Russia, that are the direct consequence of the vampire in the crypt at the kremlin. At the same time, the potential for maintaining a disparate set of states under the thumb of the all mightly Russian forces has been somewhat tarnished,
flambée'd, and otherwise diminished, reduced in limbs, increased in depth (fathoms) and generally distributed in an untidy manner around a peaceful neighboring country.
Russia started this entertainment with 120 of 174 odd BTG's, losing half of that number in the first 30 days as being effective. They regrouped, added equipment with more historical character, WW1, WW2, Korean, 5o's, 60's vintage pieces, to give more space in the museums for the latest equipment. With more than the 120 BTG still caught in the quagmire that is
Viet Nam Ukraine the reserve capability to maintain a loving and caring hand on the states fortunate enough to be under the benevolent leaders' care would seem to be.... non-existent.
Russia can choose to maintain Vlad's folly for the near future and lose every state that doesn't include the name Moscow or St Petersburg, or they can go to contestant #2, or some other solution to their rather untidy bed that has been made.
A simple Baysean-like review....
- Probability of Collapse of the Russian Federation? Unknown, but it ain't zero.
- Probability of a conventional win in the field against Ukraine at all? Closer to zero than 100%.
- Probability of taking over Ukraine and not losing the Federation? Unknown but close to zero.
- Probability of taking over Ukraine, and not having a 100-year guerilla war? Infinitesimal, e.g.,Plank scale stuff.
And of course, Russia will choose door #5, but one thing that aviation teaches is, that you can't ignore physics, and putting off a bad decision hoping that things get better is not a brilliant course of action.
The OODA loop, of a united Ukraine vs a despotic and corrupt Russia, looks a lot like this IMHO:
[[b]WARNING: Aviation Content]
That's just on response, effectiveness? That is more stark.