Originally Posted by
CGameProgrammerr
...the private helicopter market is very small at the moment, so manufacturers have largely ignored it. Robinson is one of the few exceptions.
Apparently the private helicopter market is massive (I heard 80% somewhere, for light helicopter market), but because of the 12 year calendar life of Robinsons, people are forced to put them out to hire, so they MUST be certified for the commercial work to lube up the depreciation pineapple. Flight schools trash them. Insurance is through the roof doing ab-initio or other risky commercial work. Inevitable chicken & egg here with certification requirements.
I think HX50 will open up an entirely new market of people that would not have otherwise bought a machine at all, who are happy to hangar it and fly 50hrs/year privately. As Jason Hill puts it: people who can afford the capital cost, but who cannot afford to lose it. The value being dependent on the condition and hours of the machine, not the calendar life. You have an asset after 10-15 years you can sell. Like my experimental plane (which has gone up in value in 8 years, despite only being used 20hrs/year).
I am squarely in this purchaser demographic: I put in an order, but would not have otherwise bought anything. An R44 is just a bit too all-round **** (range, speed, payload) for my desired mission profiles, and just way too expensive for what it is. Fun for hiring & flying around the flag pole or to nearby destinations, but that's about it (talking private ops here). Other experimentals are basically 2-seaters. Other turbines very expensive operating costs.
To answer some other queries: HX50 is the main sale. Not many HC50 orders in by comparison (basically HC50 only open to HX50 orders currently to secure early slots). Concurrent certification will take years and years in parallel (2030?) - I don't think that's any secret that will be difficult and prolonged, but Brexit and lack of any manufacturing in UK would see political pressure on CAA to approve & support (assuming safe), rather than be tangled up in red tape. HX airworthiness will be based on the HC certification standards so I wouldn't expect many restrictions in my jurisdiction - probably similar to my conventional sport aerobatic experimental airplane which only has 1 small limitation on the CoA.
Yes build is 2 weeks in factory in UK for final assembly (HX50). That allows for 51% build log & privileges that go along with that (experimental owners know how much money this saves). Plus the flexibility of owning & operating experimental aircraft is just so good for private ops, compared with all the nonsense that comes with certified aircraft. To me this is a large part of the benefit, and 2 weeks is as good as it gets for this 51%. I wouldn't even want a HC50 for private use.
Engine isn't revolutionary. Small improvements on a known working design. The elephant in the room is he wants to crank out a 500hp (400hp continuous) for $100k a piece, versus $hundreds from Rolls. Also fit exactly the right size to match the helicopter (perfect power:weight for application with no wastage), has decent efficiency and is lightweight & uses modern manufacturing techniques for reliability, FADEC controlled, no accessory gearbox (weight), biofuel compatible, ... it starts to add up why the humble incumbents might not be a good fit, despite being good engines in their own right.
In fact nothing on the chopper is magical - it's all conventional stuff all seen before. Just slotted together in a form factor that is modern, fast and doesn't cost the farm. I don't think there's really that much technological risk to be honest. Most of the difficult stuff has been PoC demonstrated or built now, or has been done before in other industries and he's hired the talent to make it happen. He stated publicly he has spent ~10 of ~30 million pounds (or thereabouts). Doesn't seem like much that can stop this at this stage, which is reflected in the discounts in pre-orders reducing significantly.
There's an owners app with about 50x more info than is available publicly and weekly progress videos. It's all very interesting and personally I'm not fussed with needing to be patient and having to wait a few years - it's a new machine being designed & created from lumps of steel and dry cloth in one end, and helicopter out the other end. It's going to take time and there will be hiccups, but I think in the end crab will eat his hat, if he doesn't die of cynicism first (I'd rather be an optimist!). In the mean time, I'm enjoying hiring the 44 and loving all the video updates watching each part discussed in detail, and seeing it slowly morph into a real machine.
Stay cool ppruners - and remember it's okay to occasionally be optimistic.