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Old 19th Aug 2022, 01:38
  #182 (permalink)  
1A_Please
 
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Originally Posted by ebt
I can't see them just buying Bravo. The core FIFO op is a goldmine of solid, guaranteed revenues, a Fokker fleet of scale (with the path towards replacing them with E190s), plus buying a much larger range of contracts, fleet and bases that Network couldn't replicate on its own. It's not just about access to another cheap set of drivers for the RPT operation.

Might be interesting to see if Qantas try to allay the ACCC's concerns by offering cheap E190 leases or sales to Cobham/Rex and Airnorth to allow them to scale up and bid for more FIFO contracts. Only issue is that Rio have just gone through a major procurement of their air services, so there isn't immediate opportunity for those guys to pick up a big chunk of work from the top end of town.
I doubt that would cut the mustard. It is very hard to see how QF can restructure the deal to overcome the existing concerns. There is no way the government/ACCC want to wave through a deal that results in a single player have 75% of the market.
The market currently has Alliance's share price around $1.30 under Qantas' offer price which suggests the market has decided it won't happen. There is no way the market would walk away from such an obvious arbitrage if it thought there was any chance of it happening.
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