Originally Posted by
ORAC
Hal Brands:
The greatest geopolitical catastrophes occur at the intersection of ambition and desperation. Xi’s China may soon be driven by both. An excerpt in @ForeignPolicy from our new book,
Danger Zone, on what China wants and why it may not get it.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/13...s-us-conflict/
What Does China Want?
Beijing’s ambitions are about to crash into its problems.
By
Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger distinguished professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and
Michael Beckley, an associate professor of political science at Tufts University.
An interesting and insightful article. It however does not address one development that has no historical analog, the ubiquity of social media. Chinese leaders can control the message in a way that is unprecedented. Ultimately to stay in power the Chinese Communist Party only has to have the population believe they are the only possible legitimate government. The reality is meaningless, it is only the received message that matters.
This dynamic works against foreign adventures and focuses everyone and everything inwards. The truly profound change in China in the last 5 years is the ubiquity of the surveillance state. More money, people, and energy been focused on this than any external initiatives.
Putin has provided an object lesson on the dangers of over reach, one that I am sure will influence Xi profoundly.