You cannot guess at a break even load factor until you have an idea of their yields. Even the cost side of the profit equation is muddy because we don’t know when their lease escalators kick in. Given that fuel on the MEL-SYD route is costing $5,200 per sector average this week you would guess that the total cost is somewhere near $12k Maybe more.
For comparison, Southwest Air's costs on a similar leg would be around $7,700 USD in 2021. Fuel has only increased since then.
Just looked at a SYD MEL return flight late in last week of Aug. $213 round trip. The break even at that number is laughable.
editted to correct SWA data. Their costs are around $0.106/ASM.
Historically industry typical break even load factors are around 75%. When a carrier achieves significant cost savings they often squander it by offering too low fares.
Last edited by Australopithecus; 8th Aug 2022 at 07:25.