Originally Posted by
langleybaston
There is a strange and deluded narrative emerging in the media, suggesting that, if Russia causes a European winter crisis by cutting off energy, the Ukraine will somehow be persuaded to seek terms.
The leverage is very thin: the principal countries providing help to Ukraine are either not likely to budge because of conviction, and/ or because of less vulnerability. The likes of Germany and Italy easing sanctions would certainly help Russia, but not to the extent of influencing the Ukraine. France, who wisely retained nuclear energy when most others flinched, might make soothing noises from the side-lines, but only to drown the sniggering at Germany's come-uppence. Merkel has a great deal to answer for.
Russian mindset is that the Great Powers of Russia, Germany/UK and France decide everything between themselves. The little countries are puppets in their spheres of influence and therefore irrelevant. The very concept of these non countries having a say, is unimaginable.
Yet again reality has tripped up Russias invasion plans as it did in 1919-1921 when the attempt to invade Germany and France ran into Poland .
There is s dozen countries who will not back down