Originally Posted by
davidjohnson6
This may not be what people here want to hear, particularly those who live near the UK's smaller passenger airports, but I will try to be neutral between airports.
The traditional pattern of business travel which sustained many routes has seen radical change since March 2020. WFH pre 2020 was usually regarded as an excuse for skiving, but the pandemic has removed the emperor's clothes around the need for business travel or being in the office every day. Everyone is now willing to say out loud that the emperor is naked.
Furthermore, other countries in Europe have seen airports close or lose passenger service, while the services that remain tending to concentrate on the airports with highest levels of traffic, and the smaller airports in non-tourist areas often sustained previously by business-centric spokes to major hubs. As slot, emission and noise rules become stricter, airlines will focus away from sub-100 seat aircraft to maximise the profits from their permits, trimming service from the quietest of Europe's airports
At the same time land values have broadly increased, making it harder to justify profitability per square foot in the airports with fewest pax, particularly as small airports need a runway of size comparable to much busier airports.
The pro-green movement is not going away... and this will make short haul business travel more difficult to justify and be authorised by corporate policies. Carbon emissions will be taxed more heavily in future, and companies will need to demonstrate ever more to investors, customers and Govt, how they are reducing emissions. Greenwash doesn't always work.
Pre 2020, many airport employees were on minimum wage, with possibly zero hours contracts, and required to be at work at 4am on long shifts. People have learned to upskill since 2020, and now work in roles that have more added value and can pay better salaries. This drives up the cost of running an airport, making it even harder for less busy airports to achieve sustainable profitability. Let's not even mention oil prices with Russia/Ukraine, inflation or rising interest rates, all of which make an aviation CFO want to cry.
With such major changes in industry structure, something has to give. The pandemic has simply broken the previous magic spell that all seemed fine. Anglesey, Cambridge Carlisle, Gloucestershire and Oxford airports were little more than artificially sustained facades as regards commercial passenger service. Other airports will also be called out.
As for public sector owned airports... Govt bodies with purse strings will eventually ask why little used airports need such a large subsidy which could be used to benefit the local economy in other ways - this debate has been happening (and continies to play out with the debat still in progress) in the last few years in countries like
Germany - Lubeck, Zweibrucken, Magdeburg
Sweden - Karlstad, Kristianstad, Borlange, Jonkoping, Vasteras
Spain - Burgos, Ciudad Real, Salamanca, Lleida
France - Agen, Lannion, Perigueux, Rouen, Dijon, Epinal
Italy - Brescia, Salerno
It's difficult to explain to taxpayers in non-outlying regions why a big chunk of airport subsidy beneficiaries are those going on holiday. Maybe one set of elected officials will support the airport, but with elections every few years, policies can always be changed after voters change their preferences.
There will, I regret, be other airport closures or airports in non-outlying regions losing all pax service in the UK. Most people reading this have a pretty good idea of the UK airports where question marks exist. Maybe the aviation industry needs to become more effective at arguing its case...
Disclaimer - I do not work for any airport, and do not financially gain from any particular airport company doing well or badly. I am not a member of any political body, lobby organisation or special interest group.
I have paid personally to fly, as an airline passenger, out of every UK mainland airport which has had regular passenger service in the last 5 years, except for Wick in northern Scotland.