Originally Posted by
43Inches
I think the point is ENOUGH population, Mildura has a population of 30,000 roughly. 3 Flights a week in a 737 is 30,000 seats per year, so just from some marketing basics, you would have to carry the whole population of that town in one year to fill 3 weekly flights. Now if you operate AM/PM and well timed runs for business and professionals you will pick up regulars, commuters, that up that number, and yes holiday makers at appropriate times. But 3 random flights a week with no on carriage and you start to see the business case fall apart. Then try to say this will be viable to a destination that is not the major city for that town and the available patronage becomes extremely weak, like Mildura to Cairns or whatever other pairing they are talking about. You can't generate passengers that just don't physically exist, no matter how good your marketing is.
Mildura has around 190,000 outbound seats through Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney so 30,000 is actually quite an insignificant number
3 flights per week to Maroochy / Brisbane North (sure why not) along with northern connections to Cairns, Townsville and the other northern destinations Bonza will be flying to is not only going to be enough to fill seats, they may actually need more flights
If my understanding of the Bonza model is correct, the below points will ensure success
1) From Maroochydore, there is an almost equal number of flights to the north and south
2) With flights timed in blocks, this will open up flights from, say, Mildura to Cairns 1 stop on an ULCC
3) Morton Shire and Northern Brisbane also served, same as Avalon does with SW Melbourne
4) Maroochydore is a holiday destination
5) Sunshine Coast has a population of over 300,000 with a large amount from down south, both city and regional, visiting families
But by far the most important point is the 1 stop connections at very low fares, Bonza just needs to get the passengers and luggage transfers efficient and all of a sudden they have over 30 1 stop pairs