Originally Posted by
wondering
Gas dependency goes both ways. Russia canīt just turn on and off its gas wells with the flip of a switch. If Russia decides to stop supplying gas to Europe completely, wells have to be shut down and secured. Not that simple. Same for reopening. The question is who gets hurt more. I reckon, we will find out this coming winter.
I think that the pain will start to manifest before winter time.
If the
Economist article Uncle Fred provided (a page or so up from here) is on target, the pain will begin this autumn as food supplies get tight. Food insecurity tends to have political ripple effects in
any country, and a lot of countries are looking at the hold up of Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments with growing concern.
OK, pet peeve, sorry to introduce this: I'd like to see the American 'ethanol in the gas' mania reduced considerably, and have for a long time.
I am not sure if product for this year can be diverted to food versus fuel buyers, but it might take a little bit of pressure off of the food crunch if more of the corn went to food and not ethanol production. However, those contracts are probably long term in nature and may not be as fungible/liquid as one might hope such that it allows a shift in end usage.
(Do not know enough about that aspect of commodity economics to offer any further support for my idea, that's going to take a lot of research).