Lots to dig out of this.
First, strategic. the DoD used have to be ready to fight two wars at once (as in WWII), then that shrunk to a war plus a “major contingency operation”. It now seems the DoD is questioning if that is still possible. If not, it opens the door for still more cuts as they focus just on China - with implications for Europe and NATO.
Second, commercial, first mention of cancelling the KC-Y competition and just ordering more KC-46. That might not get through Congress.
Third, technological, another indication in the interest ion a combat capable tanker. Though that might end up as a system with a mother tanker with a fleet of MQ-25 type drones shuttling fuel forward.
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022...-in-its-fleet/
US Air Force wants to lower the number of tankers required in its fleet
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Air Force’s top civilian said Wednesday the service is eyeing a 5% cut in the minimum number of aerial refueling tankers it is required to keep in its fleet.…During an event at the Heritage Foundation think tank, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said the service plans to ask Congress for permission to cut its tanker fleet requirement from a minimum of 479 refueling aircraft to 455.
Congress set that 479 requirement when it passed the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act, which was based on a TRANSCOM study from 2018 that found that number to be the minimum fleet size required if war broke out. At the end of 2021, the Air Force had about 490 tankers in its fleet.
Kendall said a tanker capacity of at least 455 would be “adequate” to respond to a threat from China, which the military considers the United States’ current pacing challenge, as well as other missions. But as the Air Force closely considers its priorities in a tough fiscal environment, the service “can’t do everything all the time,” he explained. And he warned the service’s ability to respond to multiple major crises at once may be tested.
“Given the threats that we face, the idea that we can do a major war and a major contingency simultaneously is a stretch,” Kendall said.…
Kendall also said the Air Force is growing more concerned that tankers may faced an increased threat of being shot down in combat. How to design a more combat-survivable tanker is one of the key questions the Air Force is asking as it starts to envision what its future KC-Z tanker should look like.
But, Kendall said, that’s still an open question and the Air Force hasn’t gotten very far on finding an answer…..
He also reiterated that the Air Force has become “much less confident” that it will hold a competition for the KC-Y bridge tanker, which will pave the way for the service’s next-generation KC-Z. If the service doesn’t hold a KC-Y competition, it would buy more KC-46 Pegasus aircraft from Boeing while retiring older KC-10 and KC-135 tankers.…