Originally Posted by
Stick Flying
But your "bet" is on trim isn't it? If there were no defects currently being investigated, either it wasn't trim or it was forward trim with neutral or forward control input. Surely this type of event couldn't happen with any crew that were monitoring the flight path. And I can't think of many instances where a yoke input could be achieved without at least some form of pilot input (deliberate or accidental).
I have an open mind on this event. What we currently have is a leak from some party which in my mind has no credibility guarantee. Until we get something on formal lines I'd say there are many possible scenarios. The sooner this can be put to bed the better in my opinion.
Trim: I don't want to rule out the "control" through trim. The leaked message is just too cryptic to let it have been a "normal" yoke control of the airplane.
Investigation: There is probably not that much physically left to investigate, given the airplane is largely shattered in small pieces. So, it's largely only FDR/CVR.
What I am suggesting is, there are more tech ways to move the pitch control surfaces, than only the yoke and trim switches itself. Having an open mind to these aspects might be useful, instead of diving onto a suicide scenario.
For example, remember the recent fight between FAA and Boing about the YES/NO cable rerouting, because short-circuits were presumed to be able to cause the trim motor to move, without the trim switches being activated (Or the trim-disable switches being effective). We also know, that manual trim with the trim wheel is only theoretically possible. And we also know, stopping a run-away trim by holding the trim wheel will also be challenging.
There are simply too many fuzzy aspects, not really fitting an upfront suicide scenario.