Originally Posted by
magyarflyer
Erdogan refuses admission of Nordic countries into NATO he won’t budge no matter what there is the end of the proposal
i don’t see see any way around it diplomatically or otherwise
wonder how much Putin influences Erdogan decision
I think that Turkey is looking to take advantage of any Russian problems in the Black Sea area.
Some
interesting commentary from a Turkish observer here in that regard.
Granted, he's an analyst, not a foreign minister or a prime minister.
When Ukraine wins the war, the balance of power in the Black Sea region will change fundamentally. Having exposed its own profound operational problems, Russia will no longer enjoy the perception of superiority. Expect more challenges, especially from Black Sea countries. Ukraine will emerge from the war stronger, with an experienced army and coastal defenses strengthened by new Western anti-ship weapons that will further reduce Russia’s ability to patrol coastal waters. Both Romania and Georgia are interested in a greater U.S. and NATO presence in the Black Sea.
Turkey’s approach to Russia will change too. Its navy is already the strongest in the Black Sea, powered by new frigates armed with new indigenous technologies, and a growing submarine fleet that already outnumbers Russia’s Black Sea Fleet three to one.. It also has new gas fields in the Black Sea to protect. These changes are likely to affect implementation of the Montreux Convention. When Montreux was written, the Black Sea was understood to be under the control of the Soviet Union and Turkey, with the Soviet Union superior. Everything has changed now. Ukraine, Romania, and Georgia will want to review the limitations that Montreux currently imposes on ships from non-Black Sea countries in its waters.
For now, Turkey must use all its means to end the war sooner by choking off Russia’s illegal activity and revenues. Closer inspection is required of vessels transiting the Turkish Straits. NATO should be more vigilant about inspecting ships possibly carrying arms. Ro-ros bound for the Black Sea that are likely carrying suspicious cargo should be boarded and inspected in the international waters of the Mediterranean. Closure of the Turkish Straits to merchant ships working for the Russian war effort should be considered. Turkey should prevent civilian merchant vessels from supplying Russia’s wars by carrying military cargo.
Action must also be taken to re-establish global food security. Russia is stealing Ukrainian commodities on an industrial scale and selling them; profits from these illegitimate sales extend the war. Great amounts of stolen commodities end up in Turkey, some even carried inexplicably by the Syrian government shipping company SYRIAMAR. Buyers, including companies in Turkey, are wrong to get involved in this illegal trade. Turkey should instead focus on rebuilding Ukraine. While Russia continues to blockade Ukraine’s most essential ports at Odessa and Chornomorsk, its ships should be denied commercial access to the Turkish Straits.
Erdogan sees a situation that he can turn to his advantage, so he's going to make the most of it. And what he wants are concessions, or perhaps more 'yes' votes from Sweden and Finland and Germany (etc) as regards Turkey joining EU, among other things. (Yes, that's a bit of speculation on my part).
Originally Posted by
Ninthace
I wonder how long it is since one big ship sank another big ship directly as distinct from the use of air power?
Are you including collisions at sea in that musing?
