And yet despite all that, these carriers have restored almost their entire networks in Europe except flights to Manchester?
You exaggerate the extent of the return of US flights to continental Europe, but I do take your point. And even destinations which are back on the map don't necessarily enjoy the original frequencies. The issue which holds back MAN (and LGW, STN, BHX etc.) is geographical proximity to LHR, and in particular that it is accessible from the catchments of these airports by rail, coach and car overland. We discussed earlier why carriers will throw everything at protecting their LHR presence, so I won't repeat the details.
Do tell us which “rapidly-expanding US independents” are “assessing the Manchester proposition”? You offer the impression of being well-informed on the subject. Dare I say even if that were remotely true, they’d take one look at the place and it’s issues and walk away.
Jetblue was one of two names mentioned. The other was a US domestic carrier with NEO's on order and Transatlantic ambitions. I read about them in an article interviewing one of their executives several weeks ago ... I'm trying to remember the name of the carrier, but it surprised me that they were interested. The article was linked to a number of forums at the time and reported on social media, so if any reader here can recall the details please do post. Meanwhile, I'll see if I can locate the original interview and get back to you if so. As for taking one look at the place and walking away, why haven't Bangladesh Biman, Kuwait Airways, Gulf Air, Corendon, Sun Express, Nice Air, Emerald or Aer Lingus UK themselves done that? They're all recent entrants or imminent new operators at MAN. Fortunately, carriers make decisions based on the business proposition. The whims of a random forum contributor with an axe to grind won't influence their decisions.
Furthermore, these routes are nothing to do with Oneworld. They are point to point routes plugging a gap left by Thomas Cook and attempting to trash VS yields. If the routes were operating in lieu of AA, they’d be going into major hubs like PHL, ORD or CLT. The only Oneworld presence at MAN for the Transatlantic market is via LHR (or DUB).
In the quote above, you refer to Aer Lingus UK. May I invite you to look up the following flight numbers: BA6152/BA6153 and BA6154/6155. As I'm sure you will realise, BA is the flight code of Oneworld carrier British Airways, and these are their codeshare flight numbers on Aer Lingus UK's Orlando and New York JFK routes out of MAN. Of course, both British Airways and Aer Lingus UK form part of IAG - they are sister companies, so it is unsurprising that they work together. American Airlines also works closely with IAG (including codeshares with Aer Lingus), but I don't believe they codeshare on MAN-JFK / MCO yet. I would guess that their immediate priority is to bolster demand for their own services out of LHR.
Addressing the issue of the Thomas Cook collapse (which came before covid dominated all thinking), IAG was left with a challenging dilemma. Leave Virgin-Delta to develop an unassailable position in the North, or take the plunge and compete with them directly. They chose the latter, and Aer Lingus UK was the vehicle set up for the purpose. So of course they're competing with Virgin robustly. That was the whole point. But, as we know, covid intervened between then and now. The launch of EUK was delayed and the proposed schedule pared back. The loadings you cite illustrate how difficult the current market is when voucher redemption passengers are stripped away.
If the routes were operating in lieu of AA, they’d be going into major hubs like PHL, ORD or CLT. The only Oneworld presence at MAN for the Transatlantic market is via LHR (or DUB).
Not necessarily. MCO and JFK were logical choices for the initial launch. BOS and ORD were also under consideration, but caution has become the watchword in the wake of covid. My guess is that both the US and the UK will face a recession over coming months, and if so I could see further expansion remaining on hold for the foreseeable.