Originally Posted by
OzzyOzBorn
Yes, Vokes. You got me. Describing an airport experience as 'average' and 'quickly forgettable for most' surely does meet the definition of cheerleading. Confirming that the airport security staff weren't beastly to me during my eight recent departures through MAN is surely cheerleading too. That just has to be a lie. Meanwhile, all readers scanning what you have written will instantly recognise your impartial and balanced assessment of the situation, so unlike my own. I must avoid getting so emotional when I post.
So ... You raise the issue of Transatlantic demand again. OK, I'll address your points, though I don't plan to divert this thread into an in-depth debate on the topic. LHR's situation is unique. Slots there change hands for exorbitant sums and are considered to be assets on an operator's balance sheet. Of course carriers will seek to protect their LHR slot bank, and if the opportunity to grab more slots arises they'll do that too. It's good business, and if it means diverting resources from other routes to sustain it, so be it. We're seeing that phenomenon in action.
Levels of customer demand reflect an unusual market situation. Many customers are holding travel vouchers issued in lieu of trips cancelled over the last two years of covidworld. If left unused, these risk expiry - in most cases during this calendar year. So the pressure is on for travellers to cash them in and use them while they can. In addition to this market, we also have many people who have been unable to meet with family and friends for upto three years ... large numbers will do what it takes to rectify that in the short-term. Of course, many of these customers are voucher-holders too. So airlines are seeing a demand bulge based primarily on these two factors. The problem is, will this level of demand be sustained once those vouchers have been redeemed and the reunions and delayed weddings have played out? How much new money is really coming in on ticket sales? We don't yet know, but inflation pressures, soaring fuel prices and the cost of living crisis may offer us some clues on that. The airlines will be in no hurry to commit to additional long-term risk until things become alot clearer. And we don't yet know whether a new raft of covid measures will be reimposed this coming Winter. Hopefully not, but we can't rule it out.
Now your reference to Edinburgh, Dublin and 'little old Shannon' (as you call it). Are you acquainted with historic migration patterns? The market for bringing Irish-Americans across for a visit to their spiritual home is absolutely enormous. Scotland enjoys a good measure of this too, and also enjoys a positive tourism profile for US customers who enjoy heritage, whisky, golf and the rest. So Ireland and Scotland are a big draw for eastbound US-domiciled leisure travellers. Many will hold vouchers based on unfulfilled travel to these destinations. The market at Manchester is quite different in composition. Passengers using Transatlantic services from Manchester are heavily skewed towards UK-domiciled customers. This is a big reason why we see brands familiar with the UK-originating market dominating here. Delta is backing their Virgin Atlantic partner brand for the Manchester market. Oneworld has switched to Aer Lingus metal. United is looking to return when market conditions become more predictable. TUI is back in the Florida market. Rapidly-expanding US independents are assessing the Manchester proposition.
If you can supply load factor and yield data for the Aer Lingus long-haul base at MAN, please do share with us. You offer the impression of being well-informed on the subject. Though I do point out that Aer Lingus is in an unusual situation. The EUK Transatlantic operation is a new start-up, so their loads will not be bulked-up by voucher holders who have seen earlier trips cancelled. Aer Lingus needs to attract completely new bookings, and that isn't easy in this market.
That's where we are, but by all means cling to your narrative that all US carriers have exited Manchester because they hate the airport experience and 'the place is a dump and not fit for purpose' ... I presume that this includes the brand new T2 infrastructure which the remaining Transatlantic services are now using? Yes, that must be it.
And yet despite all that, these carriers have restored almost their entire networks in Europe except flights to Manchester? Do tell us which “rapidly-expanding US independents” are “assessing the Manchester proposition”? You offer the impression of being well-informed on the subject. Dare I say even if that were remotely true, they’d take one look at the place and it’s issues and walk away.
My narrative isn’t that US carriers have exited MAN because “they” hate the airport experience, it’s almost entirely due to demand. But demand is created or lost on a number of factors - airport experience, customer feedback, disruption data being some of them - and the current state of the place isn’t going to win them back any time soon.
As for Aer Lingus, 102 on MCO yesterday, 114 on Tuesday and 108 on Monday. Inbound 72 on Tuesday, 89 yesterday and 61 today. JFK similar numbers but faring slightly better thanks to being on a smaller aircraft. Furthermore, these routes are nothing to do with Oneworld. They are point to point routes plugging a gap left by Thomas Cook and attempting to trash VS yields. If the routes were operating in lieu of AA, they’d be going into major hubs like PHL, ORD or CLT. The only Oneworld presence at MAN for the Transatlantic market is via LHR (or DUB).