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Old 1st May 2022 | 19:13
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alf5071h
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Joined: Jul 2003
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From: An Island Province
Prober, the links below might be a bit heavy for a school project. The debate is open, continuous; and without solution until it happens!

There could be greater value in debating the issues, man or machine, or more likely man and machine where the machine has greater emphasis on computational capability.

Statistics have little meaning without context.

There may be value in finding the very old ICAO diagram (unscaled) of how the primary causes of accidents have change from technology to the human; but again beware context, subjectivity. The need of a systems view.
Then consider that diagram squashed into recent the safety statistics, and compared with the last 20 years such that whatever the relative cause, there are very few of accidents with cause, man or machine.

Airbus publishes a useful review, https://accidentstats.airbus.com/sit...-1958-2020.pdf page 17 shows the proportional factor reduction of 10 for all accidents, thus technical or human components (ICAO digram), are relatively very very small. Beware the law of small numbers (fallacy) we tend to make more of small values even though not justified. The analysis also considers technological advances, new generation aircraft.

Why is the low safety value flattening out, can this ever be reduced, is this due to the human or the wider operational system? i.e. there will always be accidents even without the human, but will the rate be any better than with the human who contributes so many hidden ‘saves’ in the much larger area above the safety line.

A good subject to debate, but not to conclude.

Re the issues we don't hear about, because there are no reports, then a better guide is to search for articles by Hollnagel on looking for things that go right (many refs, ppt simpler ones)

A recent HF view is at https://aviation.vision/wp-content/u...hite-Paper.pdf
Note than the majority of views focus on AI and consider today's problems, not really forward thinking. The one item on IA (Intelligent Assistnce) is more likely, but it still involves the human.

Also;
https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...ech-Report.pdf

https://safety177496371.wordpress.co...ritime-safety/
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