On first glance, Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev seems like a common or garden variety hardliner, But then there are some oddities. He studied shipbuilding, he's an engineer. Engineers tend to give credence to facts and figures. His family;, the kids are all in service industries that are badly affected by sanctions. He was part of the push to the war, but did make public statements before the war to the effect that
"We don't want war. We don't need that at all.", He denied allegations that Russia plans to invade Ukraine, describing the claims as "completely absurd. Patrushev was a leading figure behind Russia's updated national security strategy, published in May 2021. It states that Russia may use "forceful methods" to "thwart or avert unfriendly actions that threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev )
Patrushev can do maths and has a way to separate his connection to Putin's cronies and avoid direct responsibility for the decision to attack Ukraine. He can take the position that Putin went against the stated national security strategy that was amended in 2021. Putin has to be incapacitated completely (no Easter surprises) in order to get the rest of the gang of thieves to follow. It isn't impossible, it's not likely either, but it is more rational than waiting for a guy who has Parkinsons' and Stomach cancer to recover to take the whole of the Russian Federation down the gurgler.
Wasn't Patrushev the one Putin lambasted during that infamous television broadcast back in February, when he lined his cronies up and got them to publicly state their support for the intervention in the Donbas 'republics'? Its infuriating how the news cycle moves on so much from a few months ago that it's impossible to anything about this online.
I wouldn't get too excited about him succeeding Putin anytime soon. Despite all the talk Putin looks okay to me. He'll be on the balcony come May 9th, hale and hearty, mark my words.