Pure speculation... cockpit crew member suicide.
Evidence: (i) lack of updates/general silence by CAAC, (ii) CES has put B738s back in service now (but took ages with Max's), (iii) Shenzhen stock market has tumbled 30% (and most Chinese investors borrow to invest in stocks), (iv) Evergrande and Chinese property generally bankrupt, (v) no alert to ATC of any kind despite 3 pilots normally in cockpit in China, (vi) extreme pitch, (vii) little evidence of gradual disintegration of control/fight back, (viii) rumors of FO suicide denied already by Wu Shijie, (ix) below ICAO standard flight time/rest limitations, and general management disinterest in mental health, in mainland China (x) general high level of safety and maintenance in China (ie doubtful maintenance problem, and B738 already proven), (xi) time of day of crash/weather - since most aircraft accidents are very early morning flights, or during the night, and/or in foul weather, (xii) punishment (not support and self-improvement) culture in mainland China, coupled with crazy experienced FO still in right seat
If I'm right, expect a cover up. The above are mostly China-specific problems. They cant blame it on the aircraft (for public confidence reasons), so they will have to declare no conclusions due recorders broken. Meanwhile there would be a very quiet edict from the CAAC to check the mental health of pilots (which probably wouldnt then happen) and perhaps a change to meet ICAO FTLs.
Last edited by Arrowhead; 18th Apr 2022 at 18:41.