I agree with your post except for these last 2 bits:
- an error got through a few slices of swiss cheese. That probably happens more often than most realise in all professional safety-critical outfits, not just aviation. We have learned to learn from these mistakes rather than criticise (e.g. Threat and Error management training). The organisation will learn from the final ATSB report (when it comes), and in the meantime, pilots who recognise that “it could happen to me tomorrow” stay on their toes and reinvigorate their defences.
- so I disagree with your language of “a frightening derangement of process” - unless you are trying to get a sound-bite in the media, this is a gross overstatement of the risk matrix. A far more “frightening derangement of process” was the contributing factors leading to the A330 departing with pitot covers, for example.
- well yes, any publicity of an aviation screw-up diminishes the general view, and of course tall-poppy syndrome makes Qantas (including it’s wholly owned but independently operated subsidiaries) particularly susceptible. Rain Man was awesome
PR for Qantas, but also created a rod for their back with increased public scrutiny of any stuff-ups.
- Joe Public probably won’t get too excited if “a Qantas pilot forgot to put the wheels up”. It’s not the main news story of the day. The aircraft stayed safely away from Primary Schools and Orphanages.
If genuine risks to aviation safety in Australia are to be discussed, I would suggest directing attention to the real threats, such as fatigue management, bean-counters running ATC (Ballina), bean-counters running airlines (all of them, and including cost pressures on pilot training, engineering, aircraft purchasing, and outsourcing everything), bean counters running manufacturing (Boeing), self-funded “cadet” schemes, cheap pilot labour (to avoid costly training) via “critical work shortage visas” for pilots, and the general plummeting work conditions and pay for pilots in general.
A Q400 missing “gear up”, and the checklist supposed to catch it (if that’s what happened) is not insignificant, and I look forward to learning from the report in 3 or 4 years’ time (there’s another problem right there!). But let’s keep things in perspective. And more importantly, let’s focus on the fix rather than the criticism, particularly before anyone knows what really happened.
Drawing general conclusions about the state of the industry (or a company) from one event like this is not likely to be accurate nor helpful.