Originally Posted by
DIBO
Why don't you as simply say "stop the war"...
As if RF gas and oil can be replaced overnight.... Refineries and the associated logistic infrastructure are build with a specific crude mix in mind, and the RF crude oil is an important - not so easy replaceable - component of this mix in many EU refineries. And flows of RF finished oil products are also an important part of the oil import/export balance in EU. We will face structural shortages of diesel (possibly also JA1?) in the EU if we cut off RF exports. So defending the EU with a future structural shortage in diesel, JA1, etc?? We have been conned by our leaders into being much to dependent on RF fossil energy from a military & economical strategic point of view...
Edit: and the Baltics that made this decision, were preparing this aleady looooong time before the war...
I know just about nothing about oil refinging. But an interested individual can google up information on the subject like depending on the refinery type it may be able to use almost any Crude oil type available. Apparently a coker refinery can use almost any crude oil available in the market. More importantly and being informative for an amateur like myself there are lists of refineries that have already stopped making new deals with the russkies:
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...il-2022-03-21/
Those refineries will make it up with something else then, they will not just shut down the refinery.
Why am I asking to shut down the pipelines: Shutting the russian oil and gas pipelines will be painful yes, but that is the fastest way to influence without going to war. 60% of Russian exports and 40% of GDP is of oil and gas. Cut that out and they will run out of money very very fast.
In 2014 the drop in oil price caused the Russian economy to plummet. Add that to the other sanctions currently and see what happens...
Originally Posted by investopedia
The 2014 oil price collapse badly hurt Russia's economy. Between June and December 2014, the Russian ruble declined in value by 59% relative to the U.S. dollar, fueling inflation that forced the Russian central bank to raise interest rates as high as 17%. By 2015, Russia, along with neighboring Ukraine, had the lowest purchasing power parity (PPP) relative to the U.S. of any country in the world. Declining PPP lowers living standards, as imported goods become more expensive.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...il-2022-03-21/
The issue is that in 2014 the oil price went down to around $40 per barrel. Now the russians are selling their crude oli with a discont at $70 per barrel. That is a level that makes them loads of cash. So either make the price plummet or cut the pipelines, Which one is manageable by the European countries? There really is only one option and it is shutting down the pipelines, it will in any case be cheaper than having a war raging through central Europe.
Now add the shutdown of gas pipes and we are starting to talk of something meaningful. A combined impact, like a Javelin, first blow breaks the tanks reactive armor and the second blows the turret off.