If you’re going to go counter factual then you could retain the Tornado, also have 12 Brimstone, have tanks and therefore some range, and have AAM, and have ALARM and have a real gun rather than a mythical Harrier cannon.
The DI of Brimstone was pretty eye watering. I know the Harrier could go high but it wasn’t the fastest beast in the world even when it was clean, and it didn’t have the best fuel load.
”But what about carrier capability?” Well IMHO the QE or the POW would have to sail right into the Black Sea to allow the old jumping bean to deliver any effect whatsoever, if we take the current unpleasantness as an exemplar. Unless you wanted to send the tankers forward to support them. This current environment is not permissive for FJ, let alone lumbering tankers. It’s not like they can sit in cell above the threat area like they did in the UKs recent wars.
But I am aware that I am biting against the old saw that the RAF should have sacrificed anything to retain the Harrier, so I’ll rest.