Originally Posted by
Havingwings4ever
Ran video(of showing an object coming down in a vertical arc trajectory) by a friend who put it through a forensic video editing program, he does this for a living.
I am pretty confident seeing the resulting video that the tail section is not present during the length of that video. Wing and engine on 1 side seems present but not sure, other side not visible.
Analysis of FR24 data indicates in last 2 minutes an abrupt extreme vertical descent followed by a steep vertical ascent, followed by a final extreme vertical descent till impact. Continuous loss of altitude with a temporary 'leveloff' after the 'climb', followed by increasing extreme rate of altitude loss.
I am not familiar with the airspeed data from FR24.
Pictures are showing popped rivets in several parts of the fuselage indicating over exceedance of design limits.
Somehow crew lost control of the vertical flightpath; likely loss of tail section, immediate or during the last 2 minutes of flight.
failure of rear bulkhead, collision in the air, runaway trim,we are just guessing right now.
Crew seems to have been fighting to get the aircraft recover from the initial steep abrupt vertical descent. Must have been horrific those last 2 minutes.
May their souls be at peace.
30 year plus airline/instructor Boeing/MD's/Airbus, lot of hand flying
My first thoughts on seeing the raw video. Some of the debris, not found in the hole, seem to be winglets and other wing or tail parts. Maybe nothing to do with the cause.