I think this is a perfectly apt summary of Vladimir Putin's thinking, taken from another discussion:
* You are the Russian president, essentially the lifetime ruler of the world's largest state, which stretches over a sixth of the landmass - the time difference between Crimea and New Chaplin is 11.5 hours
* You've got Ukraine in your near border area, which has long been divided into "pro-Russian" and "pro-Western" parts
* The access you have to your military base in Crimea is anything but certain and secure in the long term, but you simply can't (and won't) give up Sevastopol
* who you send to the Ukraine are effectively conscripted boys
- if the lads can take the whole Ukraine on the fly, great. It didn't cost you much and you got more than you wanted (at this stage).
- the boys won't do too well there? OK, you'll "sell" the loss of a few hundred soldiers to your people as "the heroic struggle of our children against fascism" - and you'll send more soldiers after them, but already heavily armed professionals, who will turn the "western" Ukraine (which you don't want) into scorched earth and to "eastern Ukraine" bring the remains of the "young heroes who fell for the liberation of Novorossiya from the fascist yoke" And with Novorossiya there will be a "brotherhood sealed with blood"
- you cannot lose militarily, because your army is objectively stronger than the army of Ukraine and nobody else can intervene militarily there, because you have nuclear weapons
- economic sanctions won't hurt you personally and you'll pose it as a question of honour to the ordinary Russians - "do you choose national pride or slavery to Western fascists"?
- The only ones who can protest significantly are the rich oligarchs. But when you ascended to the throne 20 years ago, you "cleansed the motherland" of those wealthy Western sellouts and thieves" that arose under Yeltsin - and the people applauded you then.
- So you're going to destroy the western part of Ukraine, driving half a million or even a million people out of there
- The West will be overwhelmed by the next wave of refugees.
- You'll have safe access to Crimea.
Well, if you can withstand (maybe) a year of (only partial) sanctions anyway, they will start working with you again because you have the raw materials they need
You will keep "Novorossiya" (eastern Ukraine) and destroy the western part of Ukraine to make its revitalization very expensive for your enemies
Translated with
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