Originally Posted by
vne165
So we are approximately 55 days then.
If I understand the modelling correctly, shouldn't we be at 400 hospitalisations under the most optimistic scenario with Level 2 restrictions in place early enough?
Possibly, but the most optimistic scenario also shows peak hospitalisations about 55 days from '0' and we're clearly nowhere near the peak. It's not entirely clear what '0' actually represents; is it the day of the first local transmission, or something else?
In any case, the accuracy of the modelling obviously depends on a lot of assumptions that might not eventuate. The Dept of Health's Omicron modelling (
https://www.wa.gov.au/system/files/2...odelling_0.pdf) also states the following:
...it is anticipated that these are conservative estimates and, as result of the WA population being significantly more vaccinated than other Australian jurisdictions and other nations when the outbreak commenced, the actual effect may be lower cases and bed requirements.