It is looking like the world (and even WA) is emerging from COVID restrictions so I expect Qantas to return to bumper profits, having trimmed their costs and increased their domestic market share.
The world in moving out of Covid and into international security issues, International travel will cop another hit and interest rates to pay for the military escalation and covid debts are starting to mount already. QF will not be in a low interest environment for long. To put this in perspective, Rex so far has $40 mil in actual loans debt out of $77m line of credit at currently 2% of used credit (as per the 1/2 year report), these amounts are group wide, so the loan amount is spread among the pel-air ventures AAPA and other things. It owes PAG $70mil out of a total of $150mil, however that is convertible notes, so PAG can be given/take Rex shares at discount instead of debt, the loss was more because of more draw down of PAG investment, however cashflow and net available liquidity was stable. Virgin will be the same arrangement with Bain supporting losses, if any, until it stands up on it's own and then there will be a float. The aim here will be for all entrants to take market share from QF and force openings in the slot system into the main hubs. QF has had to sell/lease back assets to keep debt to a minimum and does not have an equity partner it can trade shares for equity at present, it has run out of high value assets to sell, so you wont be seeing much more of that coming up. At present the QF sale act restricts it from selling anymore shares to an overseas investor so that avenue is blocked. From what I see of QF at the moment its loads are not huge and they are struggling to crew everything. Add to that industrial stands that spell last ditch efforts to cut costs like cutting loose EBAs instead of negotiating. QF is in trouble there is no doubt, and its enemies are no longer on their knees, with another seemingly well backed entity coming as well, while I don't see Bonza as a huge threat it will suck passengers from the system overall. I see absolutely no chance of QF returning to huge profits in any near term scenario.