Originally Posted by
fitliker
The invasion was probably delayed ....... .
The probability of conflict is very high indeed, unfortunately. And it does not depend on Russia or Ukraine or various European “negotiators”. It does not even depend on the current POTUS. The US establishment and military-industrial complex have already prepared a package of sanctions of their dream and will do their best to implement them. The benefit is “N-fold” for them (and for the UK after the “Brexit”). To make problems and weaken Russian economy. But also weaken EU and especially Germany and make them buy liquid gas from the US (at much higher price) instead of using the pipelines from Russia. Keep demonizing Russia helps keep the NATO member states more united. Make defense budgets zoom. Distract population from internal economic problems (“war is at our door step, so some “collateral damage” is inevitable”). Etc, etc.
And it’s very pity that it’s very easy to start the fire in the current situation. It may start with a provocation staged by the Ukrainian side with the help of US and UK instructors. Could be enough to just send a “go” command from D.C. (not necessarily Pennsylvania avenue 1600) or Virginia to a local coordinator in the Donbass area, and the latter will command further to the Ukrainian forces nearby. Their dirty tricks are well-known. For example, blow up some chemicals (like white-helmet clowns did in Syria) and accuse separatists. Or it could an explosion in a power plant, dam, etc. Then a short hysteria in the Ukrainian and Western media with a refrain that “those separatists must die” and massive attack on Lugansk and Donetsk.
Russia will have no chance to escape preventing genocide of the Russian population in the area and respond. Lugansk and Donetsk will be immediately recognized as independent legal entities and their request to help will be instantly answered positively. The same sequence of events as it was with Georgia in 2008 when insane Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia and killed many Russian peacekeeping staff there.
Of the course the best moment to start this dirty and bloody game is not on Feb. 16 or a few days later. Again, like in 2008 they are probably waiting until the ongoing drills of the Russian forces are over and they return back to their bases.
The Ukrainian army keeps nearly 50% of its troops at a relatively short Donbass front line. While huge segments of the border in the East are not protected at all. If they were really expecting Russian tanks to invade, they would behave in a different way. This only means they are getting ready to attack Donbass.
A piece of black humour (from Ukraine) in the end:
A phone rings at a restaurant in Khreschatik (main street in Kiev).
- Hello, a marine platoon commander from Crimea here. May I please book a large table for thirty men for Feb 19 evening?
- Sorry sir, you are just 30 minutes late. We are fully booked for that date. The NN armory battalion commander from Belgorod has already reserved the whole restaurant. But if you can make it on 18th, we can arrange a room for your crowd.
Hope there will be no need for such bookings.