Originally Posted by
tartare
Sadly, as an uninformed observer, it would appear that initially, Russia will quickly overwhelm Ukrainian forces.
I'd predict early losses would be bearable for them.
I think they'll smash the Ukraine airforce.
Ukraine manpads aren't useful against anything flying above FL15-20.
Ukraine airbases will be put out of action, and aircraft destroyed on the ground or in the air.
Russia has overwhelming superiority in troops and tank numbers.
Do they care if they lose a few in the opening hours?
Nyet comrade.
I agree. They won't have much to oppose the invading forces due to immediate loss of air superiority. That's what counts. As long as you've got air superiority no one would be so stupid to send in tanks and troops. This would end in a turkey shoot/can plinking with thousands of deaths and the loss of hundreds to thousand of tanks within a few hours
I think the real cost to Russian would probably be an ongoing Chechnya like occupation.
An ugly, cold meat grinder on their western border over coming weeks, months and possibly years that consumes soldiers as young Russian boys and girls are picked off by snipers from the windows of shattered buildings.
I agree. And this would be much more difficult for him to sustain over a longer period. His own population will quickly get dissatisfied over this.
We have to remeber that Ukraine is almost one third the population of Russia, so a totally different beast compared to Chechnya or Georgia.
Does Vladimir Vladimirovich care about that?
Probably not.
I do not entirely agree. While personally he won't care much he would be forced by his own population to care in such a case.