Globnocnik
I don't 'come up with the figures' - accountants following GAAP do so. So if they say we made 1.5-2.0B for 2nd half of last year, then you might find that all the things you mentioned are included.
Cury
thanks for posting that article - saved me looking for it. I recall that CX sought permission to delay borrowing so not sure when the interest rate ratchets up - from drawdown or on predetermined calendar dates.
But from the article - it says the interest bill will 'top out' at around 2Billion in mid 2025(assuming all government money has been drawn down). So, if things hadn't taken a turn for the worse in December, we would NEVER have used a single cent of the government loan as were cash flow neutral to positive for the 2nd half of last year. If things stay as they are now till say, June 30th this year, then yeah we will probably have drawn down 5-7.5B. If we were cashflow neutral to positive late last year, when we can match that level of flying again we will no longer draw down any more money. So in that hypothetical "back to Nov 2021 conditions on 1st of July 2022" if we never choose to repay the 5-7.5B then the interest bill in 2026 will be about 450-675m. So like i said - not going to be a game changer. The Bloomberg article is as prescient and accurate as the Melbourne Truth or TMZ or National Enquirer.
Last thing people don't seem to get - this company has 3 main shareholders who hold, collectively, 80+% of the shares (Swire, China and Qatar). So pray tell how falling corporate bond prices will cause the other 20% of shares to fall to levels such that the 80% majority stake is forced to capitulate to market sentiments? This is effectively a privately owned company with a small public stake and an even smaller government stake.
As I said - this airline aint even close to going broke - and given past govt support is there a good reason for the government not to further support us in late 2023 or 2024 if things are still as bad as this month?
I tend to agree with STW on the macro - HK is less than 1% of China's population with low single digit contribution to the economy. We are, at best, a 32nd province. And they care no more nor less about CX and expats than Aussie govts(federal and state) cared about Qantas or Virgin. The hotel industry is hurting - restaurants are hurting - bars are hurting. Is the mainland also trying to get rid of hotels, bars and restaurants? Or they similarly the unlucky recipients of current polices?