Originally Posted by
falcon900
Such territorial ambitions as he may have towards Ukraine are better served by covert means, which are likely to prove particularly effective in the Russian supporting regions of the country, and offer him the protection of deniability.
That opinion seems hard to justify in light of the events of the last 8 years. Covert methods did work well in Crimea, but that was due to very localised factors. In eastern Ukraine they were largely a failure, which is why the first overt Russian invasion took place in 2014 (the fact that it was denied does not make it 'deniable'). The political termination of that campaign was as favourable to Russia as it could have been under the circumstances but it has become apparent over the intervening years that the political will to end the conflict is not as strong in Ukraine as Moscow assumed (or hoped). It is hard to see what the achievable political outcome for Moscow is, but I would be extremely surprised if there was not an intention (or a willingness) to use a large-scale conventional military operation. Nothing else really makes any sense.