Originally Posted by
BuzzBox
Dr Dre’s ‘bet’ of mid-to-late March was based on the CHO’s advice re booster efficacy, hospital bed availability, etc, which sounds reasonable. If McGowan doesn’t open then, he’ll need to wait until after the winter illness peak, but then we’re potentially back to needing further boosters to ensure maximum protection. So, mid-to-late March seems quite likely, but all bets are off if the current outbreak gets out of hand.
You can dream up other excuses for McGowan’s decision to delay the 5 Feb reopening, but the advice from the CHO clearly recommended such a decision.
I would say early to mid March. Australia wide cases peak in the Omicron wave 17 days after they took off, the UK about 3 weeks. In Queensland they peaked a month after borders open, about 2-3 weeks after spread really took off. From the UK and South Africa we can see Omicron waves last about 6-7 weeks, a rapid rise followed by a rapid decrease. Already beginning to see the start of a similar decrease in Australia. We can expect by mid Feb the East Coast wavs to have mostly subsided, meaning more RAT tests and health staff available for WA if they started their wave just after that.
March 2 was named in the CHO health advice document. March 5 is the next Saturday. I'd reckon those are the most likely candidates.
Push back domestic flying by a month, but the additional international services planned out of Perth shouldn't be effected, as they weren't scheduled to start til late March or April.
If McGowan doesn’t open then, he’ll need to wait until after the winter illness peak, but then we’re potentially back to needing further boosters to ensure maximum protection.
Israel found a 4th shot to be ineffective, and the European Medical Agency has said more than 3 shots can be harmful to the immune system. They recommended the boosters be timed to co-incide with prior to winter, so March-May in the Southern Hemisphere which is when we usually get flu shots. So you won't see the next round of mass vaccinations in Australia until March-May 2023.