Originally Posted by
Transition Layer
Speculation or source? (not disagreeing with you…I think Perth long haul bases are on thin ice.)
At least SOPS is happy in retirement
Well here's the text from the press release:
Timing to reinstate Qantas’ Perth-London route, which is currently operating via Darwin and was due to return to Western Australia in late March 2022, is under review.
Note the use of language. "Timing to reinstate". Trying to extract a glimmer of hope out of a very negative day, this would indicate they eventually want to return. If they wanted to pressure the WA government they could've use language like "the viability or long term future of the Perth London route is under review". A browse of the Australian Frequent Flyers Forum shows the Darwin stopover isn't particularly popular, if it were to be a long term option they would need extensive terminal and lounge upgrades which may not even be possible from the space available. They'd probably use SIN instead.
We know just yesterday they have been in recent talks over PER-JNB. They returned to PER-LHR as soon as the aborted opening date was confirmed, and soon after announced PER-FCO. So no secret they see money to be made out of Perth, and unlike pilots business people tend to forget about grudges if there's money to be made. They know however money will only be made with open borders, so I'd expect any confirmation of those international routes will happen post a new opening date. As for the 330 we know there's enough domestic transcontinental travel that it will be needed after border reopening so doubt that will go in the long term.
So if I was PER based LH crew I wouldn't be browsing real estate listings in other states just yet. Thing is there's still a lot of unused capacity out there, A380s, which won't all be back in the air by year's end. If there was so much potential flying out there those 380s would be back ASAP and perhaps those 787s and 330s would be deployed elsewhere, but that doesn't seem to be. In that press release the group Domestic capacity is only going to 60% until this blows over so I even east coast bases won't be flying at max hours for the foreseeable future. I think what may be likely is a return to rolling stand downs, no doubt airlines will lobby for more government assistance to keep going until WA finally reopens. The estimate is now for group Domestic capacity to be at 60% til this blows over. You can also expect a lot of talk about "remaining competitive" to prepare for future EBA negotiations.
As to that new date, it's up in the air.
On one hand due to McGowan not having the balls to own a specific date, he may hope there's further spread of the Omicron cases and more seeping in with some compassionate returnees in Feb, so after the East Coast waves reduce (which they are starting to peak now) he can reopen but have an excuse that means he doesn't have to own that decision.
At the other extreme if he wants 80-90% boosted that won't be until June, and then there's zero chance they'll open up at the start of winter. So then Oct/Nov as a minimum, and then the elderly will be almost a year from their booster.
I think at this stage the eventual reopening could be a coin toss anywhere from Feb-Nov.
Also comments from the Chamber of Minerals and Energy warning about delaying reopening too much, These are the guys who supposedly the most important in the state:
https://thewest.com.au/news/kalgoorl...body-c-5377922