The trigger?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...mp-2022-01-20/
Ukraine war necessary if Russia recognises breakaway regions - pro-Kremlin MP
MOSCOW, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Russian-backed separatists in east Ukraine would expect Russia's army to fight with them against Ukrainian government forces if Moscow follows through on a parliamentary proposal to recognise their independence, a pro-Kremlin lawmaker said on Thursday.
Alexander Borodai made the comment after 11 lawmakers proposed that parliament ask President Vladimir Putin to
recognise the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Such a move would mark a major escalation by Russia after weeks of mounting tensions around Ukraine. A Russian military buildup and threatening rhetoric have stoked Western fears of a looming invasion, though Moscow denies any such plan.
Borodai, a former Donetsk political leader who is now a member of the Russian parliament, said the separatists would look to Russia to help them wrest control of parts of the territory they claim that are now held by Ukrainian forces.
"In the event of (the republics) being recognised, a war will become a direct necessity," Borodai told Reuters.
"Russia would have to take on some security responsibilities" and defend the territories, he said, as it did after recognising the independence of two breakaway Georgian regions after a 2008 war between Russia and Georgia.
read more…….
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday responded cautiously to the proposal on recognition, saying he could not comment until parliament had voted on it…..
Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine analyst at Chatham House think-tank in London, said recognition could create a legal pretext for a Russian invasion of Donbass to "protect" it from Ukraine.
She said it would be a "clear step of escalation" requiring a Western response in the form of sanctions against Russia or bolstering NATO forces on the alliance's eastern flank.