Originally Posted by
calypso
@ Viking
I think you watch too many you tube videos. Back in the real world the development costs of a new airliner are in a completely different league to electric cars. That is why we have essentially a duopoly of plane makers and many hundreds of car makers. China has tried to break in and so far at least failed, Russia has tried also and failed too despite considerable aerospace expertise. This is one complex puzzle of finance, technology, supply chains, regulation, pilot training, fleet standardisation and reliability. On top of that the incumbents have a global pool of spares that keep the show on the road 24/7 all over the world, matching that for a new untested type is beyond the deepest of pockets. An insurmountable mountain to climb.
I don't think we'll see a new large commercial aircraft manufacturer burst in to existence in the west (and even less likely elsewhere), mainly for the reasons stated above but also regulation and standards. The regulators are conservative in the extreme and this acts as an effective blocker to transformation. Many would say of course that is what they are there for. I would say they go too far in terms of risk aversion.
I think that, if anything, you'll see an electric aircraft manufacturer grow in to a regional aircraft player, threatening the bottom end of the Airbus and Boeing ranges. I feel that Boeing commercial might end up getting sold off to someone else or broken out in to a completely new company as a damage mitigation measure.