Hi DaveDurban,
I probably sit somewhere between your view and Aiminghigh and Bracebrace......
You say there will be nowhere for the FO's/cadets being hired in 4 years time or so, for the quick progression they desire. Do you not believe in RYR expansion cross Europe. They are projecting 225m pax annually in 2026 (increase from 149m in 2019). With the aggressive approach and the position of the market right now, I think it could be realistic and therefore that expansion will provide at least some progression for the FO's and cadets being taken on.
As for the salaries, from what I have heard, you are giving bottom end Winter net figures and 2.5k would be a generous but achievable high summer net figure. The way the pay is set up will mean pay could be drastically different over the course of the year.
Agree with a lot of what you've said but cant help but feel it is overly pessimistic at times. Perhaps I have slightly rose tinted specs on. I guess time will tell.