Originally Posted by
Australopithecus
Its 19-22 years right now because of the demographics. You write some of the only posts worth reading in this site so you are plenty smart enough to know that nothing lasts forever. There is a ten year unoccupied gap on the career progression ladder. The last person above that gap will indeed be circa 20 years. The next person not so much.
At the moment, yes it’s a long time to command. Yes, there will be demographic changes. And some who were at the start of the 2016-2020 recruiting wave will have a shorter time to career goals than most. They may even come close to getting a command within 10 years. But I don’t think it will become a regular thing for all entrants into the company. Upswings are usually followed by downswings.
Overall in a Legacy carrier with most LH cruise relief pilots employed as Second officers you could expect what 20% of your career SO, 40% as FO 40% as Captain? If you have a 40 year career that’s still at least 20 years in standard times before getting a command.
Quick commands can come around when there’s great expansion, like almost doubling the fleet in two years when the 747-300 and 767 were introduced in the mid 80s, plenty of commands achieved in record time for those at the start of that wave. But that now would mean looking at an additional net 120 aircraft coming in a short amount of time.
But hey, at least we’re talking expansion, recruitment and potentially quicker commands rather than redundancies and stand downs!