Regarding the Budapest memorandum; Belarus is offering to host Russian nukes.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...be2f6139ef6f4b
To make it short, Putin wants to leave his mark in history but he realizes that his days in the leadership are coming to an end sooner than later (he is turning 70) so he has to act soon. He pushes the western world with Ukraine and demands something he can't achieve (NATO withdrawal from sovereign countries and a quaranteed circle of interest).
Who blinks first?
If NATO agrees, the entire treaty goes down the toilet.
If Putin backs up, he's losing his face and he will not become the modern day emperor of Russia so he is not standing down.
Both scenarios are scary to say the least.
Putin may well believe in MAD, but I'm not so sure of Lukashenka...