Between them FR and easyJet will have ~40 aircraft next summer. Plus the inbound flights from other bases. Jet2 and TUI must be a similar size between them at T2.
Clearly easyJet, Ryanair, Jet2 and TUI will dominate MAN’s allocations. EK are important because the A380 has its own restrictions. The VS, CX, BA, EI operate a fraction of the flights on standard wide-bodies, while they might be good for the ego, the reality is that it’s easyJets and Ryanair’s that keep the passenger throughput high.
If FR are happy at T3 and easyJet at T1 then nothing will change, other than more ‘network’ airlines moving to T2. The VS lounge and rumoured BA/oneworld facilities increase the likelihood. I think we all acknowledge T3 isn’t a great passenger experience and that COVID has hit the groups appetite for further redevelopment right now. I think most of the discussion is around how it can be improved in the short term.