Manchester-3

[OzzyOzBorn]

I concur with many of your points, but for me the optimal solution is to operate T1/T3 as a single integrated unit, rather than jumping through hoops to force T3 to work in it's present form. I suspect that trying to juggle carriers as you suggest would really annoy Cathay Pacific and Qatar Airways, which whilst being Oneworld members have negligible interline business with BA at MAN. Iberia, Finnair and RAM have little reason to be alongside the Shuttle either. MAN doesn't function as a hub for Oneworld carriers. They wouldn't shun interline business, but it simply doesn't tend to connect over MAN in any volume for this alliance. On the other side of the equation, I suspect that Ryanair would be absolutely livid if told they were being shifted out of a reopened T3 against their will. Let me guess: a significant number of based units would be on their way to new homes PDQ. Ryanair don't mess about when an airport operator hacks them off. They see themselves as the primary T3 incumbent - they love it there - and if evicted to accommodate a relatively small competing operation at MAN, one would certainly expect them to kick off bigtime. And under the circumstances you propose, I wouldn't blame them. Best not prod that particular hornets' nest!

Other points: the towing issue is more a problem in terms of aircraft under tow going against the flow of taxying traffic. It's a pain in the proverbials and will be held out of the way with active flights given priority. That implies recurring knock-on delays.

Re Paris: FlyBe was a big player on MAN-CDG. Around four flights per day IIRC, using their larger E175/E195 equipment. They're gone. Air France has increased to a basic 3x daily schedule; EasyJet is active on the route too. But ORY is attractive in it's own right, offering great domestic connections to Regional France. And ORY is also favoured by many headed for southern districts of Paris itself, in the way that LGW is to Sussex etc. I would expect a daily service to do well (C-19 restrictions excepted).

I do think that there is a role for FlyBe 2.0 at MAN, but not a full replication of the legacy network. MAN wasn't their problem. Their Embraer leases were crippling. Their operations in Scandinavia didn't work out. They spread themselves too thin around several niche bases. But going back to basics could work for them. There is a vacancy for 'business day' morning and evening services to key regional cities well-suited to Q400 ops. Both Eastern and Blue Islands have not yet committed to double daily on the routes they have taken. Their reasoning is understandable, but it leaves the door open to a less risk-averse challenger. And a freshly-funded debt-free FlyBe 2.0 could be that. Where FlyBe 2.0 could come unstuck is that their horde of attractive peak-time slots at MAN will be very much in demand if forfeited under 'use it or lose it' rules once they're fully re-instated. Once Ryanair, EasyJet, Jet2 etc. have them, they won't be easily relinquished. So FlyBe 2.0 have a big decision to make re ops at MAN, and they can't dawdle too long.

EDIT: Just an additional thought. Perhaps FlyBe 2.0's owners might have designs on trying to sell off their MAN slots. Jet2 paid a handsome sum for those of the former Thomas Cook operation, though that feels like a world away from the economic environment we know today. I felt really sorry for Jet2 as covid engulfed life as we know it so soon after they won the auction for those slots. But, whilst slot values may be priced very differently post-covid, peak time slots at MAN are far from worthless. Perhaps some or all of them might change hands if the right offer comes along.