Originally Posted by
Ladloy
sure Sydney is doing fine. Just head into regional areas such as Queanbeyan, south coast and Albury. The numbers are astronomically high on a per capita basis. Higher than Sydney's case and death rate during peak delta and no one seems to care.
You are bundling together three areas - "regional areas such as Queanbeyan, south coast and Albury" - that have markedly different COVID-19 outcomes.
If you look at NSW Health's
Locally acquired COVID-19 cases for the last four weeks up to 8pm 6 November 2021 you see the following:
Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional local government area, population 62,500 (0.8 percent of the total NSW population) had 1.1 percent of the cases (78 out of 6,979 cases); an over-representation of some 37.5 percent.
Illawarra Shoalhaven local health district, population 387,600 (4.7 percent) had 4.7 percent of the cases (328); no over-representation.
Southern NSW local health district, population about 220,000 (2.7 percent) had 1.6 percent of the cases (112); an under-representation of about 40 percent.
Murrumbidgee local health district (includes Albury), population 242,840 (3.0 percent) had 9.7 percent of the cases (678); an over-representation of some 225 percent.
Albury local government area, population 54,350 (0.7 percent) had 8 percent of the cases (556); an over-representation of some 1,000 percent.
Very clearly, Albury should be a concern but that concern needs to be tempered against the relatively small population.
Noting that we are dealing with four weeks worth of data, the aggregated cases per capita for the various areas/districts are:
- Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional LGA - 1.25 cases/1,000 population
- Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD - 0.85 cases/1,000 population
- Southern NSW LHD - 0.51 cases/1,000 population
- Murrumbidgee LHD - 2.8 cases/1,000 population
- Albury LGA - 10.23 cases/1,000 population
At the peak of outbreak we were seeing 4 week aggregated cases per capita in excess of 11-12 cases/1,000 population in Western amd South Western Sydney. And those districts had populations some twenty times larger than Albury's.