Despite all the contributory factors, there is no doubt in my mind that, had they been wearing NVG, they would not have hit the island.
With NVG, the pilots would have seen the terrain (Dara herself mentioned being visual with the sea surface and that was unaided night vision) and made the avoiding turn early - and probably manually - rather than utilising the heading bug on the AP after confirming with the rearcrew about the need to change course. That was a delay that cost them their lives.
Serious question Crab, would a Pilot use NVG in proximity to a lighthouse?