8driver, good on your nephew, but you need to consider the base line. As you said yourself, the regionals offered salaries that were hardly survivable on. Plus a shortage at Hilbilly Air in Kentucky doesn't mean a shortage of real jobs at real airlines. Most pilots at Cathay don't have the right to work in the US anyway, so it's all a bit (peer reviewed!) academic rubbish.
Every new airline in Europe offers automatically worse conditions than the competitors. Every single one. The packages on offer are hideous, as are the working conditions. As e.g. Flying Clog will shortly find out, some operate a 777F with 3 men Europe-India- Far East in one go. Enjoy and repeat. And that for maybe half of what they earned after tax at Cathay. Some in this forum still see a future in the desert. Have a look at the offered pay and conditions, especially the block hours. Plus these places are absolutely terrible, who really wants to live voluntarily in these artificial, soul-less fake societies with medieval legislation and culture? Maybe if you are from a certain country in the southern hemisphere that makes their pilots worry about the safety of your family while they are at work,but otherwise? Have a look at formerly guaranteed sick leave, pension plans, etc. Shambolic. Some praise 90% free school in these places. Well, they are 100% free where I come from and you don't have to stay indoors half a year and you have human rights. Decisions, decisions..
Long gone is the hardship pay for expats, the new normal for a skipper in Asia is maybe 10k a month, 100 hrs block ultra-long haul with 24 hrs layover at a two and a half star Airport hotel, plus a "villa" in an expensive country I don't want to be. Or make that a shoe box in Tung Chung or some other suburbian dystopian nightmare somewhere in Asia. Awesome.
The universal trend of T&C is clearly downwards, and you need to be a die-hard and blind optimist to reject that.
How often have we been told there is a "looming" pilot shortage? I keep on hearing this since day one in the industry.
Jnr, I actually read the papers you linked. Did you? They do NOT say there was a shortage, they report of a brief recruitment issue at airlines that believed 15k a year is sufficient to offer. Its a fabricated myth. You have a "shortage" of everything if you offer below market pay. Everywhere. Its absurd. The studies only talk about a FORECASTED shortage, and well, we all know how that worked out. Again.
The future pilots will be working-class if they decide to live in their home country and mostly from unsafe/poor countries with useless passports abroad, that is my prediction. The US may offer some shelter for now, but in the long run it will see the same cut-throat race to the bottom conditions.
Any "exit strategy" is rendered useless if constantly all run to the exit at the same time.
Outside work is for 99% of us an illusion, a pipe dream, exit means, well, to exit the industry and retire, become a sand rat or a work slave at a low cost. If you want to call that a "exit strategy" go ahead, I for my part think it is a euphemism.
Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 4th Nov 2021 at 06:18.